1:20 Cheltenham – Turners Novices’ Hurdle
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Between 28-77 days since last run
✅ 15/16 – 3 or 4 runs over hurdles
✅ 15/16 – French or Irish-bred
✅ 15/16 – Age 5 or 6
✅ 15/16 – Official rating 146+ (5 of the last 7 were rated 150+)
✅ 15/16 – 2+ wins over hurdles
✅ 14/16 – 67%+ strike-rate over hurdles
✅ 14/16 – Won over 2m3f+
✅ 14/16 – Won last time out (both exceptions were 2nd)
✅ 14/16 – First 2 in the betting last time out
✅ 14/16 – Never unplaced over hurdles
✅ 13/16 – Ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
✅ 12/16 – Won last 2 races
✅ 12/16 – Won a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 11/16 – First 2 in the betting
📋 Shortlist
🥇 The New Lion
🥈 The Yellow Clay
🥉 Final Demand
🔍 Analysis
The market is usually a reliable guide to the Turner’s and this year’s renewal looks no different. The first three in the betting look to have it between them, with nothing at bigger prices jumping out to me.
The New Lion was bought by JP McManus for a seven-figure sum after his Challow win. While the Challow form doesn’t always work out, four subsequent winners have emerged from that contest and his earlier victory over Califet En Vol has been handsomely franked too.
This race is normally a test of speed rather than stamina at the trip so he could have the edge on the Irish pair, both of whom look future stayers.
Final Demand is a big, raw chasing type who demolished the Nathaniel Lacy field at the Dublin Racing Festival. That 11-length romp had substance, with the 2nd and 3rd previously placed at G1/G2 level and the 6th winning a Listed race since. He’s clearly very talented, but his size and scope suggest he’ll be better over fences and he may just lack the sharpness for this test.
The Yellow Clay made it 4-4 over hurdles in the Lawlor’s of Naas last time and the distance he beat Wingmen and Jasmin De Vaux by there suggests there may not be much at all between him and Final Demand. He’s already proven his ability to come out on top in a driving finish and is trading at several times the price of the Mullins horse.
However, with The New Lion likely to prove tough to beat, the best value looks to be the 4/1 on offer with William Hill in the w/o The New Lion market. It’s not enough to tempt me in, though.
🎯 Selection
No bet
2:00 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Ran over 2m4f-3m last time out
✅ 16/16 – Between 2-5 runs over fences
✅ 16/16 – Age 6-8 (13 were 7yos)
✅ 16/16 – Between 24-77 days since last run
✅ 15/16 – Ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
✅ 15/16 – First 3 last time out (10 won)
✅ 15/16 – Run in a Grade 1
✅ 15/16 – Max 1 no complete (7 had never failed to complete)
✅ 15/16 – Beaten max 3 lengths last time out
✅ 13/16 – Run over 3m+
✅ 13/16 – First 4 in the betting (7 were favourites)
✅ 13/16 – Sent off 8/1 or shorter
✅ 13/16 – Official rating 150+ (the last 8 were all rated 153 or higher)
✅ 13/16 – Won a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 12/16 – Run at the Festival before (5 won, 8 placed)
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Ballyburn – 203
🥈 Better Days Ahead – 216
🔍 Analysis
Previous Festival form has been a solid guide to the Brown Advisory in recent years and on that basis, it’s no surprise to see last year’s Turners’ winner Ballyburn at the head of the market.
Willie Mullins’ charge looks a worthy favourite and if he gets around safely, he should win this.
He was electric at the DRF, slamming Croke Park with a powerful finishing kick that left no doubt about his stamina. That form is rock solid and a line through the runner-up suggests he should have the measure of several of these.
He’s entering unknown territory on this first try over 3m, but his full brother Noble Endeavour produced his career-best in the Ultima and I don’t see the extra distance posing an issue given how strongly he hit the line at Leopardstown.
The main danger looks to be Better Days Ahead.
Gordon Elliott’s charge won last year’s Martin Pipe on testing ground and has taken to fences well, producing his best performance yet when beating Stellar Story over 3m at Navan last time.
He’s battle-hardened, stays strongly, and arrives with an ideal profile for this race. However, the problem is Ballyburn. That line through Croke Park suggests he’ll need the Mullins hotpot to underperform and with only 7 runners here, he makes very little appeal in the each-way market.
The 3/1 on offer in the w/o Ballyburn market doesn’t exactly scream value to me either, so this is another one I’m happy to sit back and watch.
🎯 Selection
No bet
2:40 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 15/16 – Did not fail to complete last time out
✅ 15/16 – Max 1 career fall (13 had never fallen)
✅ 15/16 – Age 5-8
✅ 14/16 – Between 30-90 days since last run
✅ 14/16 – Official rating 138-153
✅ 14/16 – Won 1 of last 5 races
✅ 14/16 – French or Irish-bred
✅ 14/16 – Run in a Graded race
✅ 14/16 – Max 2 no completes (9 had never failed to complete)
✅ 14/16 – Run over 2m4f+
✅ 13/16 – Run at Cheltenham before (6 were former course winners)
✅ 13/16 – Max 1 handicap hurdle win
✅ 12/16 – Max 9 runs over hurdles
✅ 12/16 – Carried 10-12 or more
✅ 12/16 – Run 3+ times this season
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Impose Toi
🥈 Jimmy Du Seuil
🥉 Sandor Clegane
🔍 Analysis
The Coral Cup is never an easy puzzle to solve (unless Langer Dan runs in it, that is) but while the last few years have thrown up some big-priced winners, I’m siding with one at the top of the market this time around.
Sa Fureur was pulled up in this race two years ago when sent off favourite and, while he had valid excuses that day, he’s now 8lb higher and looks significantly worse treated than he does back home in Ireland. The fact that Jack Kennedy prefers him over Staffordshire Knot is interesting, but others make more appeal.
Eagle Fang was well-beaten in last year’s Fred Winter but has taken his form to another level this season, having finished 18 lengths ahead of Jetara in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan in November. Jessie Harrington’s mare was beaten only 11 lengths by Lossiemouth here yesterday and was arriving there race-fit on the back of a career-best, so the form looks solid.
However, he’s gone up 20lb in the weights as a result of those exploits and while his jockey claims a valuable 5lb, he doesn’t strike me as particularly well-handicapped for a horse that is still yet to win outside of novice company.
Handicap debutant Jimmy Du Seuil hasn’t been seen since disappointing at Aintree and Punchestown on the back of a solid effort in the Turners’ last season, but Mullins has a good record with horses returning from a layoff in Festival handicaps.
His strong-travelling style should suit this big-field scenario and Danny Mullins’ ability to deliver hold-up horses at the right time could make the pair a match made in heaven. However, his rounded action indicates a preference for soft ground and with his sole win coming on heavy I’d be worried he might find underfoot conditions plenty quick enough.
Sandor Clegane has posted career-best efforts at the last two Festivals. He’s mainly been campaigned at 3m since finishing runner-up to Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett two years ago, but hasn’t always looked the strongest stayer at the trip. With that in mind, there’s every chance the return to a strongly run 2m5f will suit and this represents a steep drop in grade.
However, the one who stands out like a sore thumb to me here is IMPOSE TOI, who remains very lightly-raced for a 7yo and looks to have been laid out for this by Nicky Henderson.
The form of his second to Luccia at Ascot last season has worked out exceptionally well. She went on to finish third in last year’s Champion Hurdle, while the third—Altobelli—has already won two valuable handicaps back at that venue this term and is now rated 15lb higher.
He followed that efort up with a third in the Lanzarote, where he finished five lengths behind Nemean Lion in receipt of 6lb. That rival has since gone up 11lb in the handicap too, so if Impose Toi finds similar improvement to the horses he was finishing around last season, he could prove to be very well treated off a mark of 141.
His win at Newbury last time looks better than the bare result given the work he had to do to track down the early pacesetters and it’s worth noting that the third, Inthewaterside, gave 9lbs and a 3.5 length beating to subsequent Grade 3 winner Moon D’Orange on his chasing debut next time.
He’s 1-1 at the track, 3-3 after a break of nine weeks or more, and first-time cheekpieces could help eke out a bit more improvement. Henderson has won this race four times in the past 16 years and this one has all the hallmarks of another JP McManus plot job. He looks certain to go close.
🎯 Selections
Impose Toi – 1pt EW @ 15/2
Betfair, Paddy Power | 6 Places, 1/5 Odds
4:40 – Grand Annual Handicap Chase
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 15/16 – Max 3 handicap chase wins
✅ 14/16 – 30+ days since last run
✅ 14/16 – Run 3+ times this season
✅ 14/16 – Age 6-9
✅ 14/16 – Ran over 2m4f+
✅ 13/16 – French or Irish-bred
✅ 13/16 – Max 11 runs over fences
✅ 12/16 – Won Class 1 or Class 2 (7 had won a graded race)
✅ 12/16 – Official rating 136-147 (exceptions: 129, 130, 150, 152)
✅ 12/16 – Run at the Festival before (1 won, 4 placed)
✅ 12/16 – Carried 10-10 or more (including 10 of the last 11 winners)
✅ 11/16 – Ran over 2m-2m1f last time out
✅ 11/16 – Not won 1 of their last 3 races
✅ 8/16 – Ran in a Graded or Listed race last time out
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Martator
🥈 American Mike
🥉 JPR One
🔍 Analysis
JPR One is undoubtedly the class horse in the race and has been well-backed into 10/1 from 25s yesterday morning. His defeat of Djelo at Exeter in November reads incredibly well now, with that rival subsequently shooting up the ranks and heading for the Ryanair Chase tomorrow.
He’ll carry just 2lb more in actual weight here, but history is against him. Only 1 of 47 handicap chases at the Festival in the last decade have been won by horses rated 152 or higher, and those rated 156 or higher are 0-14. He’s likely to be on the premises, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t find at least one too good.
Similarly, American Mike brings some strong Festival form to the table, having finished 7th in the Ballymore two years ago and 5th in last season’s Brown Advisory. A stiff test at the trip is likely to bring out the best in him.
However, the standout value play is MARTATOR.
He was put up 11lb for an emphatic win at Ascot in November, but his previous Grade 3 victory at the same track is the key form line here as that race has worked out tremendously well.
Runner-up Issar d’Airy went on to split Libberty Hunter and Master Chewy here in December, while the third—Kotmask—landed a valuable handicap back at the same venue over Christmas. The fourth, Master Chewy, won a Grade 2 last month, while the seventh—Saint Segal—was an emphatic winner at Newbury on his next start and has since hit the frame in two valuable handicaps from a higher mark. Even Madara, who finished eighth, has since run well in both the Paddy Power and December Gold Cups here.
Venetia William’s charge also finished nine lengths ahead of Traprain Law in the Desert Orchid, despite giving him 8lb. Granted, he must concede an extra 3lb to that rival here, but I’d still fancy him to confirm the form. His yard was badly out of form at the time and Kempton’s sharp 2m clearly didn’t suit as he was outpaced early before staying on for third late in the day.
He’s also had valid excuses since. Despite having won over 2m4f in his novice days, he looked a non-stayer behind Terresita at Ascot and would have hated the heavy ground he encountered at Sandown last time. The handicapper has been generous by easing him 3lb in the weights for that and this return to better ground in a strongly-run affair promises to suit.
The one concern with him is that most of his best form has come going right-handed, but his win at Newbury last season offers some hope in that regard and at 40/1 I’m more than happy to take a chance on him.
🎯 Selection
Martator – 1pt EW @ 40/1
Sky Bet | 6 Places, ⅕ Odds