3:35 Newbury
Typically one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the season, this race often goes the way of a classy, lightly-raced novice who then goes on to achieve bigger and better things. There are no such runners in this year’s renewal though, which looks slightly weaker than average.
It would be no great surprise if the lightly-weighted Joyeuse proved to be a graded horse in a handicap here. Lots of people were critical of the tender ride Nice de Boinville gave her last time, but this is a race Nicky Henderson often targets with a good one, so perhaps she was handled with care with this race in mind. However, that effort didn’t exactly suggest this drop back in trip will suit and mares have a pretty dismal 0-11 record, so with the Hendo factor meaning she’s inevitably been overbet I’m happy enough to take her on.
There’s no doubt Secret Squirrel would have finished 3rd in the Ladbroke Hurdle had he not fallen at the last, but he had every opportunity to win it after hitting the front 2 out, so to see him trading at less than half the price of the winner here blows my mind.
FIERCELY PROUD is up 9lb for that win, but the form is already working out well with the runner-up and Secret Squirrel fighting out the finish in a valuable handicap at the Windsor Millions meeting next time. However, while runner-up Kabral Du Mathan was raised 8lb for his short head defeat at Ascot, Secret Squirrel remained on a mark of 126, so it was no great surprise to see him reverse that form.
He’s now met his Ascot conqueror three times, with Ben Pauling’s charge coming out on top twice, and I just don’t see a 4lb pull in the weights being enough for Secret Squirrel to turn the tables. In addition, 10 of the last 15 winners arrived here fresh on the back of a break of 5 weeks or more. So, whereas Fiercely Proud has been given plenty of time to get over his Ladbroke exertions, it feels like connections have been playing “catch up” a little with this one and he’ll need to jump a lot better to win this in any case.
The other one worth mentioning from that Ascot race is Favour And Fortune, who never threatened that day but was one of the better British-trained novices last year and it would be no surprise to see him get a lot more competitive here. Part of me thinks he might be more of a spring horse though, so perhaps he’s one worth keeping an eye on with future targets (i.e. Aintree) in mind.
Tips
Fiercely Proud
0.5pt EW @ 14/1 | bet365, William Hill (5 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Cheat Sheet
