2:50 Musselburgh
Harry Derham has had a frustrating time of things after his gallops flooded at the end of November, but is 2-2 so far this week which suggests the yard’s fortunes could be starting to turn.
Never one to shy away from a big pot, he runs three in this, including Fidelio Vallis, who is back down to his last winning mark (produced over CD here 13 months ago).
However, he’s arriving out of form this time around and the one I like is SIR PSYCHO, whose 2nd at Ffos Llas last time can arguably be upgraded given his trainer’s inability to exercise his string.
He was conceding 12lb to the well-handicapped winner that day but still pulled 20 lengths clear of two more last time out winners, so that surely rates a solid effort over an inadequate trip.
He’ll be much more at home returned to 2m4f, has plenty of form on quicker surfaces from his hurdling days, and 3 of his 4 wins have come on right-handed tracks.
He also has a 9lb pull in the weights with Saint Segal, who he finished just a length behind at Newbury in November. That rival already had a couple of runs this season under his belt when they met, whereas he was making his seasonal debut, so I’d be fairly confident of him reversing that form on these revised terms.
Tips
Sir Psycho
1pt Win @ 11/1 | bet365 (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
3:07 Sandown
Paul Nicholls has a fine record in this race and the form of Henri The Second’s wide-margin win here last time could hardly have worked out any better.
While I wouldn’t put you off him, he’s been well found in the betting and the one I want to take him on with is 3m winning pointer DEEP CAVE, who remains unexposed over staying trips.
He was quite highly tried in his novice hurdle days (ran in 2m6f Grade 1 novice at the Dublin Racing Festival) when trained by Henry De Bromhead. He then had a short spell in France, where he signed off with a win over 2m2f, accounting for a former Grade 3 winner.
All that travelling likely makes him quite tricky for the English handicapper to assess, but if he’s back to anything like that Irish novice form he could be well-treated here off a mark of 130.
He’s now with Christian Williams, who has his string in fine fettle at the minute (2-5-14 in the past fortnight). Jack Tudor is also riding well at present. He’s 5-17 in the last 14 days, with 2 of those winners supplied by Williams.
He finished just 5 lengths behind subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road (though admittedly in receipt of 13lb) at Cheltenham in November and was unsuited by the obvious pace bias back there a fortnight ago, where the opposing Idefix De Ciergues and What A Johnny were both ridden more prominently.
Tips
Deep Cave
1pt Win @ 10/1 | bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power
3:42 Sandown
Sue Smith has her string in flying form at present and O’Connell arrives on a steep upward curve having landed back-to-back staying chases at Carlisle and Market Rasen already this season.
That said, he’s been smashed off the boards since the final declarations were made, so it may be worth taking him on with the veteran ESCARIA TEN, who ran his best race for quite some time in a strong renewal of the Cross Country at Cheltenham’s December meeting.
He was rated 152 at the peak of his powers and mixed it with some of the best in Ireland as a novice chaser, so has plenty of backclass to his name and all 4 of his wins have come on heavy ground at trips of around 3m.
In other words, a slog on bottomless ground should be right up his street and this race has been known to throw up a few surprises over the years, so the 11-year-old could be worth chancing in a race where many of the more fancied runners have questions to answer.
Tips
Escaria Ten
0.5pt EW @ 18/1 | SkyBet (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)