1:15 Ffos Las
Originally due to be run at Wetherby, the Towton has been rerouted to Ffos Las after the Yorkshire meeting was the latest to be claimed by the frost. That means this year’s race will be run over over half a mile shorter than usual, so I’m not sure the usual trends are going to be much use to us.
It’s a race that’s been billed as a match up between Handstands and the mare Cherie d’Am, both of whom are expected to improve again after getting off the mark over fences at the second time of asking. However, Handstands very much had the run of the race at Sandown and today’s drop back in trip wasn’t part of the plan, so given that he has to concede weight to his rivals today it may be worth taking him on at the prices.
Many experts are predicting Cherie d’Am will get an easy lead here, but I’m not so convinced. Ben Jones made most of the running on Handstands last time and will surely want to get on with things again, while Range is another who has made the running in the past, so she might not get things all her own way.
Nevertheless, she was visually impressive at Warwick last time and the form looks solid considering the runner-up had won her previous two races by a combined distance of 15 lengths. She has to prove she can do it against the boys, but the way she acquitted herself behind Dancing City and The Jukebox Man in a Grade 1 back in April offers plenty of encouragement in that department.
However, the one who may benefit most from this race being rerouted to Ffos Las is the lightly-raced SAINT DAVY, who is 5lb better off with Handstands from Sandown and should prove capable of better with that run under his belt. He made several novicey mistakes that day, one of which resulted in his jockey dropping his whip on the run-in, so he did well to finish just four lengths adrift of the winner in the circumstances.
The fact Jonjo O’Neill chose to pitch him into Grade 2 company on his first try over fences shouldn’t be underestimated and it was a decision that might have paid off if his jumping hadn’t let him down. Indeed, he travelled all over the winner for much of that contest and looks good value to turn the tables for his in-form connections, with this drop back in trip and easier track both likely to play to his strengths.
Tips
Saint Davy
1pt Win @ 7/2 | bet365 (3 Places, 1/5 Odds)
1:45 Punchestown
The drop back to 2m is an interesting move with Lets Go Champ, who ran well for a long way in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before fading from the back of the second last. He’s lightly raced for a 10-year-old so there could yet be more to come, but his stable appears to be under a bit of a cloud at the minute and the forecast rain is a worry.
CAPTAINS NEPHEW had The King Of Prs a country mile back in fourth when landing a listed race over course and distance in March and was similarly impressive when slamming Midnight It Is at Clonmel in December. His talented jockey’s 7lb claim means he gets weight from both of those rivals here, yet is available at almost double the price.
His reappeareance after six months off at Navan last month was a solid effort given that he clearly needs to go-right-handed and was running over a trip that stretches him. He should improve for that and any further rain will only enhance his claims, so he’s my pick at the standout 12/1 currently on offer with William Hill.
Tips
Captains Nephew
0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 | William Hill (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
2:58 Ffos Las
Again, no trends to guide us in this race. However, there does appear to be plenty of pace on which should make this a strong test in the conditions, so a hold-up type with proven stamina is likely what we’re looking for.
The consistent One Big Bang certainly fits the bill in that regard, having already demonstrated his appetite for a 3m slog in testing conditions. James Owen reaches for the first-time cheekpieces in a bid to eke out a bit more improvement, but that can sometimes have an adverse effect and he’s been well found in the market anyhow.
Similar comments apply to the unbeaten Rosscahill, who could be anything. He’s won a 3 mile point-to-point and two novice hurdles (both here) in three outings to date. An opening mark of 120 might well underestimate him, but it’s hard to know what his form amounts to at this stage and he’ll have to prove he can settle to get the trip given the emphasis on stamina here.
Up For Parol hasn’t won over 3 miles since his point-to-point days. In fact, he hasn’t won at all since December 2021. However, he likely has more tactical speed than many of these, which should allow him to conserve energy during the early part of the race given the forecast strong pace. With that in mind, I can see him picking up the pieces late on, but can’t help shake the feeling he’s vulnerable for win purposes.
So the one I eventually landed on here is MADAKET, who stopped quickly last time in a race won by the now 133-rated Woodie Flash. However, that makes his third at Newbury in November—when he finished just a couple of lengths behind that rival—read even better given that Olly Murphy’s charge was clearly well-treated off a mark of just 124.
For me, that suggests he could be open to more improvement than most of these and it’s worth noting that his best performance to date came over 3 miles in bottomless ground.
Tips
Madaket
0.5pt E/W @ 12/1 | Paddy Power (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)