1:50 Cheltenham

Four of the first five home from last month’s Paddy Power are back to contest the December Gold Cup, run over an extra half-furlong on the slightly stiffer new course.

With a fitness edge on his side, the well-handicapped Il Ridoto was a strong fancy for me that day. However, there’s no doubt that he was suited by the way the race panned out, having raced up with the pace throughout. Accounting for Freddie Gingell’s 3lb claim, he was effectively running off 138 that day—equal to his highest-ever winning mark—which means following-up here from 8lbs higher is going to require a career-best. While that’s not totally out of the question, this will be his 21st start over fences and eighth over CD, so while he looks sure to give his running again, I can see him proving vulnerable to something lower down the weights.

Last year’s winner Fugitif could only manage fifth in the Paddy Power, taking a while to warm to the task and clouting one or two on his way round. Despite those earlier errors, he made quite eye-catching progress into fourth before his run eventually petered out up the hill, shaping like a horse who would come on for the run. Indeed, his record second time out (as well as over CD) over the past couple of seasons is a formidable one and the handicapper has given him a chance off a 1lb lower mark than last year. I can see this race being quite similar to last year’s renewal in that there are several runners who will likely want to get on with things and that could play to Fugitif’s strengths once again as he’s a horse who likes to pick up the pieces late.

However, the one to take out of last month’s race could be Madara, who was having his first start for the Skeltons and did all his best work at the finish after being held-up in a race where it paid to be up with the pace. He’s unexposed at the trip, open to bags of improvement as a 5yo, has winning form on the new course, plus a 9lb pull in the weights with Il Ridoto. My main concern with him is that all five of his wins have come on soft or heavy ground and, at 4/1, there’s not really much juice left in his price.

Two-time course winner Guard Your Dreams is having just his fourth start over fences and gets in here off a mark 136. He hit a ceiling of 147 over hurdles—after winning the Grade 2 International Hurdle on this card three years ago—so there’s every reason to believe he could prove to be a good bit better than his opening mark. However, he’s been thrown in at the deep end here and there are other well-handicapped horses around him who have more experience of the big-race occassion.

One such horse is GEMIRANDE for Venetia Williams. As is often the case at this time of year, her handicap chasers are in a rich vein of form at present. However, Gemirande is very different from her typical “mudlarks” in that all four of his wins in Britain have come on good or good-to-soft ground. He missed most of last season through injury, so his fifth in the Grand Annual can be upgraded given that both the ground was too soft and he’d made his return to action just 11 days earlier.

With connections keen to make up for lost time, he didn’t hesitate in making a mockery of a reduced mark of 128 at Ascot three weeks ago. That looked a weak race on paper but it was hard not to be impressed by the way he did it, settling into a nice jumping rhythm early and barely coming off the bridle to record a wide-margin win. Charlie Deutsch is also down to his lowest riding weight of 10-2, so he’s my idea of the best bet at the prices with several bookmakers paying 4 places.

Tips

Gemirande
1pt EW @ 11/1 | bet365 (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)

2:05 Doncaster

While the rest of the card at Cheltenham makes little appeal from a betting perspective, Doncaster’s bet365 Handicap Chase represents another competitive affair and features a handful of previous course winners who warrant respect.

Kim Bailey won this race in both 2020 and 2021 and looks to have another live contender in Does He Know. His fourth off top weight at Cheltenham in October—when he finished second of the British-trained runners—looks rock-solid, with Broadway Boy going on to fill the runner-up spot in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury next time. Twice a winner with 12 stone on his back, shouldering top weight will be no problem to him and he’s back down to the mark he won the Grimthorpe off here back in March. However, only two of the 10 runners finished that day and his last two wins have come over 3m2f and an extended 3m3f, so stamina is clearly his forte and my suspicion is that connections might have one eye on future targets.

In-form Olly Murphy reaches for the first-time cheekpieces with Chasing Fire. This is an angle I like given that horses wearing cheekpieces are 5-20 (25%) in this contest and backing them all to level stakes would have produced a profit of +18.75pts. A smart hurdler, he took a while to get the hang of things in his first season over fences, but improved markedly when stepped up to 3m at Perth on his final outing and remains unexposed at the trip. However, 4 of his 5 wins have come on right-handed tracks and his lack of course form (9 of the last 14 winners had run at Doncaster previously) is surely a concern.

Last year’s winner Forward Plan is back to defend his crown and has followed an identical path to this race as he did last year, making his seasonal debut in the Badger Beers. He’s 12lbs higher in the weights this year—owing to some mightily consistent performances in better company since—but could be the type to resume progression now with that seasonal return under his belt. 

However, last year’s fourth WHISTLEINTHEDARK is a whopping 24lbs better off with the winner for a 4-length defeat that day and is available at five times the price. He’s looked out of sorts since, but recent form typically has little bearing on this race and it’s plausible that connections have been minding his handicap mark with another tilt at this in mind. Of course, it’s equally possible that he’s just lost his way (4 from 4 in his novice chasing season), but he’s gone well fresh in the past and may have been overlooked at the prices.

In a race of this nature, it can often pay to back two against the field and the other one I want onside here is course specialist ERNE RIVER, who has form figures of 11215 around here and is back down to 2lbs below his last winning mark. He too has around 6 lengths to find with Forward Plan, but an 18lb pull in the weights here can help him bridge the deficit. Tom Broughton takes another 5lbs off, but it’s the first-time blinkers that really catch my eye, with the application of cheekpieces having done the trick for him over CD last December. 

Tips

Erne River
0.5pt Win @ 20/1 | Paddy Power

Whistleinthedark
0.5pt Win @ 25/1 | General