Take a chance on Nicholls in the Pertemps
The Pertemps was once a contest for the proven and experienced staying handicappers but in recent years lightly-raced stayers have started to shine, with 9 of the past 12 winners having run 10 times or fewer over hurdles.
Several of those were unexposed over a staying trip and 2022 Triumph Hurdle 4th Icare Allen caught the eye on his first try at 3m in November, staying on well into 3rd under a quiet ride. With a top 4 finish enough to see him qualify for this, he’s been kept fresh since, with connections seemingly keen to preserve his handicap mark.
This is also a race his owner JP McManus likes to target, having won 5 Pertemps Finals in total, but in a race like this I’d much rather take a chance on one at a big price and the one I think stands out is MONMIRAL.
He hasn’t won since his unbeaten novice hurdle campaign, when he was a grade 1 winner at Aintree, but has slipped right down to a mark of 138 and looks interesting in the combination of a tongue-tie and first-time blinkers. Interestingly, 7 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue-tie — from just 22% of the runners — and a further 7 winners this century wore stronger headgear of some sort (3 of the last 4 doing so for the very first time).
He has to prove he will stay, but at 28/1 with most bookies paying out on 6 places, that’s more than factored into his price and with stable jockey Harry Cobden back onboard today (ridden by a 5lb claimer last time) he strikes me as a horse who might well have been laid out for this.
Tips
Monmiral
1pt EW @ 28/1 | bet365 (6 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Capodanno to upstage Star in the Ryanair
Last year’s Turners winner Stage Star would be a strong selection were he guaranteed an easy lead here, but that is highly unlikely to be the case and for all he looked an improved horse here in November so too has Banbridge, who was hugely impressive on his return in the Silviniaco Conti and the form couldn’t have worked out any better. However, the key to him appears to be the ground (he was a non-runner here last year when it turned soft) so conditions have to be a concern with more rain on the way.
The one I’ve really warmed to here is CAPODANNO, who doesn’t look an obvious candidate for a drop back in trip given the question marks surrounding his jumping. However, there is sure to be plenty of pace on here — with Stage Star, Protektorat and Ahoy Senor all likely to want to get on with things — so I can see this developing into a real test of stamina in the conditions.
Let’s not forget that Allaho was 3rd in the old RSA before dropping back in trip to land his first Ryanair the following season, so stamina for further appears to be no bad thing. Capodanno didn’t run at the festival last year, but did finish 4th in the 2022 renewal of that race, so their profiles aren’t all that dissimilar. The fine record of French-bred horses (all of the last 10 winners) also provides hope that he will be able to cope with this much sharper test, while his 3rd in the Savills Chase is solid form and a couple of recent winners used that race as a stepping stone to Cheltenham.
Tips
Capodanno
1pt EW @ 9/1 | General (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Crambo to give Fergal first Festival win
While we have seen plenty of horses return to win more than one renewal of the race, horses beaten in the previous season’s Stayers’ Hurdle have a poor record. Teahupoo would be the obvious contender to take from last year’s race, but has only been sighted once this season — when winning the Hatton’s Grace for a second time — and I’m still not convinced he’s in love with the undulations of the track.
Between 2014 and 2021, when Flooring Porter won his first Stayers’ Hurdle crown, 7 of the 8 winners were second-season hurdlers. In fact, of all the winners this century who have won the race just once, only 3 were not in their second season over hurdles.
With all of that said, the one who fits the bill perfectly is CRAMBO, who looks to have outstanding claims of giving Fergal O’Brien a first Cheltenham Festival winner. He has looked a dour stayer so far, needing every yard of the trip to overhaul Paisley Park in the Long Walk, and having been given plenty of time to get over those exploits he comes here a fresh horse. Still unexposed over the trip, he’s improved with every run so far and looks the sort to continue improving as a stayer.
Tips
Crambo
1pt EW @ 7/1 | General (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Venetia to plunder the Plate again
Venetia Williams has an outstanding record in this race, having won it three times between 2007 and 2013, and also saddled a couple of placed horses during the next couple of years. She had her first runner in the race for 4 years last year, when FRERO BANBOU finished only 12th.
Some solid efforts in defeat since saw him contest the New Year’s Day handicap over CD off a handicap mark of 140, when he was beaten 7 lengths by Shakem Up’Arry. However, a couple of below-par efforts since (during a period when his yard was struggling for winners) have seen his mark tumble to 133 — 2lbs lower than last year — while Shakem Up’Arry is up 3lbs and is well-fancied in the betting.
In recent years, it has been a huge positive to be ridden prominently in the Plate. The past 5 winners have now either made all or sat in the first couple, racing up with the speed and maintaining that position throughout. Staying out of trouble and on the front-end appears to be the running style that is required in this, as Carrickboy demonstrated when landing this race for me at 66/1 in 2013, and Frero Banbou fits the bill perfectly.
Tips
Frero Banbou
1pt EW @ 25/1 | bet365, Paddy Power (6 Places, 1/5 Odds)