1:20 Cheltenham – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 15/16 – Never run on the flat
✅ 15/16 – Won 2+ races over hurdles
✅ 15/16 – Age 5 or 6
✅ 15/16 – Sent off 12/1 or shorter
✅ 14/16 – Max 66 days since last run
✅ 14/16 – Irish or French-bred
✅ 14/16 – Between 2-4 runs over hurdles
✅ 14/16 – 50%+ strike-rate over hurdles (7 were unbeaten)
✅ 13/16 – Won a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 13/16 – Won last time out
✅ 13/16 – Run in a Grade 1
✅ 12/16 – Official rating 147+
✅ 12/16 – First 3 in the betting
✅ 12/16 – Ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
✅ 12/16 – Top 3 on official ratings
✅ 11/16 – Sent off favourite last time out
✅ 11/16 – Won over an extended 2m+
✅ 9/16 – Irish-trained
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Kopek Des Bordes – 198
🥈 Romeo Coolio – 170
🥉 Workahead – 106
🔍 Analysis
Kopek Des Bordes is probably the right favourite here, but he’s way too short at even money.
He was buzzy in the preliminaries at the DRF and looked far from straightforward in the race itself, with Paul Townend later stating he had to take a pull several times.
Considering he was also hampered by a loose horse, he did extremely well to win in the manner he did that day. However, you have to go back to 1992 to find the last winner of a Supreme who wore headgear, so the application of a first-time hood is surely a negative.
The same goes for Salvator Mundi, who did plenty wrong himself in the Moscow Flyer and will need to jump an awfully lot better here. That looks unlikely with Patrick Mullins taking over from Paul Townend in the saddle.
Tripoli Flyer is one of only two British-trained runners. He’s another who needs to brush up on his jumping and all three of his wins have come on sharp, right-handed tracks. I’ll be surprised if he can replicate the form of his Dovecote win here.
It was hard not to be impressed by the manner of Workahead’s victory over William Munny at Christmas, especially when you look at what that rival did in a Listed race last time.
He immediately burst into a full gallop that day and never saw a rival from pillar to post, jumping for fun in the hands of young apprentice Mikey O’Connor. He could yet improve again for professional handling, but needs to defy a number of key age and experience trends and any value has long gone now at around the 6/1 mark.
The one I came closest to making a bet here was Romeo Coolio, who arguably has the fewest questions to answer out of all the market protagonists.
He landed the Grade 1 Future Champions in a time 1.16 and 1.18 seconds faster than Workahead and Kopek Des Bordes’ respective maiden hurdle wins on the same card, and the fact he hasn’t run since means he appears to have flown under-the-radar a bit.
He also brings prior Festival form to the table, having finished 2nd in last year’s Champion Bumper, and in a race where many lack experience that could prove vital. I find it very hard to see him finishing outside the frame, but have a sneaky feeling he’ll find at least one too good and on that basis odds of 7/1 aren’t generous enough to tempt me in.
Don’t let me put you off, though.
🎯 Selection
No Bet
2:40 Cheltenham – Ultima Handicap Chase
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 16/16 – Run at Cheltenham before (9 won, 13 placed)
✅ 15/16 – Max 3 handicap chase wins
✅ 15/16 – First 6 LTO
✅ 15/16 – Carried 11-8 or less
✅ 14/16 – Irish-bred
✅ 14/16 – Official rating 139+
✅ 14/16 – 2m7.5f+ LTO
✅ 14/16 – Won over 3m+
✅ 13/16 – Age 7-9 (7 were 8yos)
✅ 13/16 – Max 60 days since last run
✅ 13/16 – Previous Festival run (4 won, 3 placed)
✅ 13/16 – Max 10 runs over fences
✅ 12/16 – Won a Class 1 or Class 2
✅ 12/16 – First 5 in the betting
✅ 12/16 – Carried 10-9 or more
✅ 12/16 – Sent off 11/1 or shorter
✅ 11/16 – Won 1 of last 5 races
✅ 11/16 – Max 8lbs above highest winning mark
✅ 10/16 – First 2 in the betting last time out
✅ 9/16 – Wore headgear (5 cheekpieces, 4 blinkers)
📋 Shortlist
🥇 The Changing Man – 201
🥈 Henry’s Friend – 188
🥉 Broadway Boy – 164
🔍 Analysis
It’s easy to see how The Changing Man has made his way to the head of the betting here.
Joe Tizzard’s grey has an ideal profile for the race, should like the drying ground, and remains well-handicapped on a mark of 140. However, he strikes me as plenty short enough for a horse who doesn’t like to win very often.
Favourite backers may point to the fact he shed his maiden tag in the Reynoldstown last time, but that was a Grade 2 only in name. The reality is that it was over as a contest as soon as his main market rival Jingko Blue departed at the third.
Happygolucky is one I strongly considered at bigger prices.
He was second in this off 7lb higher three years ago prior to landing a Grade 3 at Aintree from a mark of 149. He’s an 11yo now and has had his fair share of injury problems since, but he still has very few miles on the clock for a horse of his age and caught the eye on his return from 683 days off over an inadequate trip last time.
Since 2014, 42 of the 47 handicap chases run at the Festival have been won by horses aged between 6 and 10. However, the record of the oldest horse in such races offers much more encouragement. They’ve performed 82% above market expectations and are 7-16-88 (18% win and place) for a level stakes profit of 82 points.
While he’s one of a few who make plenty of each-way appeal, the fact 12 of the last 16 winners of this were sent off 11/1 or shorter suggests the value lies with those towards the head of the betting.
With that in mind, the one I eventually landed on is HENRY’S FRIEND.
Ben Pauling’s charge has a bit to find with Broadway Boy based on their Hennessy form, but he clouted one in the back straight just when the tempo of that race was increasing and arguably did well to finish as close as he did in the end.
Indeed, he made no mistake back over the same trip and track last time, comfortably giving Hymac 8lb and a 6-length beating. He’s up 7lb for that win, but didn’t have a hard race and the runner-up franked the form when beaten just 5 lengths in the Grimthorpe 10 days ago.
Interestingly, 11 of the last 16 renewals of this were won by horses who didn’t contest a Graded or Listed race on their most recent start. Horses wearing cheekpieces also have a good record, winning 5 of the last 16 renewals.
In stark contrast to many of the Irish contenders, all of his wins have come on good or good to soft ground, so he should appreciate the drying conditions and his prominent running style is tailor made for this race.
🎯 Selection
Henry’s Friend – 1pt EW @ 12/1
Bet365, William Hill | 6 Places, ⅕ Odds
3:20 Cheltenham – Mares Hurdle
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 10/10 – Official rating 140+ (8 were rated 147+)
✅ 10/10 – First 3 last time out (7 won)
✅ 10/10 – Max 56 days since last run
✅ 10/10 – Won 1 of last 3 races
✅ 10/10 – First 3 in the betting last time out (8 were favourites)
✅ 10/10 – Beaten max 15 lengths last time out
✅ 9/10 – Age 5-7
✅ 9/10 – 11/1 or shorter (7 were no bigger than 6/1)
✅ 9/10 – Won 2m4f+
✅ 9/10 – First 4 in the betting
✅ 9/10 – Ran in a graded or Listed race last time out
✅ 9/10 – Max 2m5f last time out
✅ 8/10 – 44%+ strike-rate over hurdles
✅ 8/10 – 3+ wins over hurdles
✅ 7/10 – Max 9 runs over hurdles
✅ 7/10 – Max 3 runs this season
✅ 6/10 – Run at Cheltenham before (5 at a previous Festival)
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Jade De Grugy – 137
🥈 Lossiemouth – 110
🥉 July Flower – 109
🔍 Analysis
Personally, I feel like Lossiemouth is the lay of the century here.
She’s been campaigned with a tilt at the Champion Hurdle in mind all season, but has been rerouted here for the second year running after a heavy fall in the Irish equivalent last time.
I thought I’d heard it all in racing, but when a flock of seagulls was given as the excuse for that latest mishap it felt like connections were clutching at straws with her to say the least.
Whatever way you slice it up, a last time out fall is hardly an ideal prep for any race at Cheltenham—be it one against your own sex or otherwise—but it’s more the noises coming out of Closutton since which would worry me.
After all, if connections don’t feel she’s been working well enough since to bounce back in the race she’s been aimed at, then can she really be relied upon at odds-on to pull off plan B? I’m not convinced.
I also have my concerns about stablemate Jade De Grugy, who is yet to run on anything other than soft or heavy ground since joining Willie Mullins, so the one I’m keen to take the favourite on with here is JULY FLOWER.
Henry De Bromhead’s last 8 runners in the race have produced 2 winners and 4 places and although backing them all would have produced a small loss of 1.5 points, the fact they’ve performed 92% above market expectations suggests he’s a trainer that knows the time of day when it comes to the ladies.
She impressed on good-to-yielding ground in a race run at a decent tempo last time and the form looks strong with the 3rd and 4th having scored in Grade 2 and Listed company since.
That was her first run back for the yard following a spell in France, which culminated in a 3rd to Losange Bleu in the French Champion Hurdle, so there’s every reason to think they might be able to eke plenty more improvement out of her yet.
🎯 Selection
July Flower – 1pt EW @ 9/1
Bet365 | 3 Places, ⅕ Odds
4:00 – Champion Hurdle
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Official rating 157+ (14 were rated 161+)
✅ 16/16 – First 2 in betting last time out
✅ 16/16 – Beaten max 15 lengths last time out
✅ 15/16 – 2-3 runs this season
✅ 15/16 – Ran over 2m-2m½f last time out
✅ 15/16 – 4+ wins over hurdles
✅ 15/16 – Graded/Listed race last time out
✅ 14/16 – Age 6-8 (12 were 6 or 7yos)
✅ 14/16 – Between 30-90 days since last run
✅ 14/16 – Run at the Festival previously
✅ 14/16 – Between 5-12 runs over hurdles
✅ 14/16 – 60%+ strike-rate over hurdles
✅ 14/16 – Won a Grade 1
✅ 14/16 – Run at Cheltenham before (9 won)
✅ 13/16 – Placed at the Festival previously (7 were former Festival winners)
✅ 13/16 – Won last time out
✅ 12/16 – Won last 2 races (10 had won their last 3)
✅ 10/15 – SP favourite
✅ 10/15 – Sent off 11/4 or shorter
✅ 9/16 – Won over 2m3.5f+
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Constitution Hill – 215
🥈 Brighterdaysahead – 215
🥉 State Man – 174
🔍 Analysis
This could be a race for the ages and it’s one that I’m more than happy to sit back and enjoy without a betting interest.
It would be great to see Constitution Hill win it to silence the doubters and cement his legacy in the sport. That said, it’s hard to believe he’s the same horse who slammed State Man in this two years ago given his obvious fragility and well-documented issues with colic since.
He faces a serious mare in Brighterdaysahead and, if she replicates the form of her Morgiana win, he’ll have to run to an RPR of at least 166 to get competitive. While he may prove more than capable of doing exactly that, the fact is he hasn’t done so since April 2023.
While State Man clearly underperformed there, what she did on the clock suggests there was no fluke about it and Gordon Elliott claims she’s strengthened up significantly since, which means the former champion will have to be at his very best to beat her.
If she drifts out to 7/2 I’ll be getting involved, but otherwise this is a no bet race for me.
🎯 Selection
No Bet
4:40 – Fred Winter
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 16/16 – Never run at Cheltenham before
✅ 16/16 – Not British-bred (9 were Irish bred)
✅ 16/16 – Never won a Class 1
✅ 15/16 – Carried 10-6 or more (4 of last 8 carried 11-5+)
✅ 15/16 – First 7 LTO (10 finished in the first 4)
✅ 15/16 – Never run in a handicap over jumps
✅ 14/16 – Official rating 125+ (exceptions: 115, 122)
✅ 14/16 – Never run over further than 2m1f
✅ 14/16 – Max 14 career runs (all codes, in GB/IRE)
✅ 13/16 – Won 1 of last 3 races
✅ 13/16 – Between 2-4 runs over hurdles (in GB/IRE)
✅ 12/16 – Max 32 days since last run
✅ 12/16 – First 4 in betting last time out
✅ 12/16 – Sent off 9/1 or bigger
✅ 9/16 – Started career on the flat
✅ 8/16 – Run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
✅ 7/16 – First 4 in the betting
✅ 5/16 – Grade 1 or Grade 2 last time out
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Puturhandstogether – 194
🥈 Holy See – 184
🥉 Wendrock – 182
🔍 Analysis
Joseph O’Brien won this last year with Lark In The Mornin and looks to have unearthed another live contender in the shape of JP McManus-owned Puturhandstogether.
He was given a suspiciously quiet ride last time on ground that wouldn’t have played to his strengths and looks to have had his handicap mark protected with a tilt at this in mind.
However, the market seems to have cottoned on to that in recent days as his odds have plummeted since the 5-day declaration stage. So, given this race’s history of throwing up big-priced winners, I’m going to take him on with top weight WENDROCK.
Granted, no horse has won this carrying 11-10 or more since Crack Away Jack in 2005, but 4 of the last 8 winners had 11-5 or more on their backs, so it’s surely only a matter of time before that trend gets bucked.
He really impressed with his jumping when beating Galileo Dame at Christmas, a victory that looks all the more impressive now given how well the mare ran in the Spring Juvenile. Although he was disappointing himself that day, it’s probably safe to put a line through that as this ex-flat racer would have hated the ground and drying conditions here will be much more to his liking.
Gordon Elliott has won this three times in the last seven years, so the fact this is his only runner this time around shouldn’t be underestimated. I also thought it was interesting to see Jack Kennedy booked to ride. Connections could surely have had their pick of the leading Irish conditionals, but they obviously feel he has enough in hand to defy top weight.
In a race of this nature, there’s always an argument to be had for splitting stakes and going two against the field, so the other one I want on side is HOLY SEE.
Though still a maiden over hurdles, his 2nd to the well-regarded French import Charlus reads well and the 4yo Rated Hurdle he ran in at Naas last time has been the best recent trial for this, producing 4 of the last 16 winners.
He has around 10 lengths to find with Murcia on that form but these will be the quickest conditions Willie Mullins’ mare has ever encountered, whereas he’s highly likely to improve for it being a son of Grade 1-winning miler Night Of Thunder. So, with a 4lb swing in the weights to help, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he proved capable of reversing those placings.
I also like the first-time cheekpieces angle with him. Since 2009, horses wearing cheekpieces are 3-7-36 (19% win and place) in this for a level stakes profit of 27 points, performing 68% above market expectations.
🎯 Selections
Holy See – 1pt Win @ 18/1
Coral, Ladbrokes
Wendrock – 1pt Win @ 22/1
William Hill