2:25 Sandown – Imperial Cup
📊 Cheat Sheet
📈 Key Trends
✅ 15/15 – Official rating of between 124 and 136
✅ 15/15 – Fallen no more than once in their careers
✅ 15/15 – Carried no more than 11-4
✅ 14/15 – Between 1-2 wins over hurdles
✅ 14/15 – Ran in a class 3 race or higher last time out
✅ 13/15 – Raced within the past 42 days (10 had ran within the past 4 weeks)
✅ 12/15 – Won 1 of their last 5 races
✅ 12/15 – Run 3+ times that season (both exceptions had run twice)
✅ 12/15 – Won over no further than 2m2f
✅ 12/15 – Ran in a handicap hurdle race last time out
✅ 12/15 – British or Irish bred
✅ 11/15 – Between 3 and 8 runs over hurdles
✅ 11/15 – Finished in the first 4 last time out
✅ 10/15 – Came from the top 6 in the weights
✅ 10/15 – Ran over 2m-2m1f last time out
✅ 10/15 – Beaten no more than 10L last time out
✅ 8/15 – First 4 in betting
📋 Shortlist
🥇 Sorceleur – 163
🥈 Spirits Bay – 154
🥉 Batman Girac – 151
🔍 Analysis
A fiercely competitive renewal with no fewer than 5 runners trading between 7/1 and 8/1.
Bo Zenith heads the market currently, but no horse has defied a mark of 137 or higher in this race since 1998, despite 61 having tried. Add that to the fact only 2 of the last 15 winners arrived off a break of more than 6 weeks and he’s worth opposing.
Last year’s winner Go Dante is another short enough in the betting. With 17 runs under his belt, he’s much more exposed than a typical Imperial Cup winner and has a bit to find with King William Rufus on their running in the William Hill Hurdle.
That leaves the door wide open for Spirits Bay. Nigel Twiston-Davies doesn’t send many to this race, but when he does they’re worth noting. He’s had just 3 runners since 2010 and 2 of them have won, producing a +28pt level stakes profit.
Spirits Bay ran in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham last time, finishing a respectable 5th. While he was flattered by his proximity to Constitution Hill, the rest of the field were no slouches and he emerged with great credit at the weights.
Joyeux Machin—who finished over 4 lengths behind him that day—was 2nd to Altobelli in a valuable Ascot handicap next time and has since gone up to a mark of 135. Meanwhile, Fils d’Oudairies, who he finished 3 lengths ahead of, is rated 146 and was a dual Grade 3 winner last season.
Put simply, Spirits Bay looks to have been overlooked by the handicapper off just 125, and it’s surely a positive sign that Sam Twiston-Davies has been booked to ride him over Jordan Nailor. He looks sure to run a big race.
However, the value play here has got to be SORCELEUR at more than double the price.
He was available at 22/1 last night but has already been backed into 18s, which is perhaps no surprise given that Harry Cobden is doing his minimum weight of 10-2. That’s arguably a tip in itself, especially when he could have chosen to ride the well-treated Afadil.
A line through Timmy Tuesday suggests his mount could also have a few pounds in hand off his current mark and he’s already shown he thrives on a quick turnaround, having won at Exeter in November before following up the very next day at Wincanton.
Saints Des Saints’ progeny are usually best over middle distances, but he’s run a few times over trips of around 2m3f and hasn’t appeared to see out the trip. As a 5yo, my suspicion is that a strongly-run 2m might suit him better at this stage of his career, and connections would seem to agree as they surely had the option of the 2m4f novice handicap earlier on the card.
Paul Nicholls also has a solid record in this (2 winners and 5 places from 16 runners) and must feel like his charge is improving to warrant upping him in grade. He’d be lower-rated than the last 17 winners of the race, but I’m happy to take a chance on him at 18/1 with most bookies paying 5 places.
Selection
🏇 Sorceleur – 1pt EW @ 18/1
bet365, William Hill | 5 Places, 1/5 Odds