2:10 Newcastle – Vertem Eider Handicap Chase
A brutal test of stamina over 4m1f, where prominent racers and market leaders have historically held the edge.
O’Connell is clearly progressive, but his run style isn’t ideal—he’s often slow into stride and can find himself struggling to stay in touch. That’s a tough ask at Newcastle, and with Peter Kavanagh replacing Gavin Sheehan in the saddle, I think there’s value to be found elsewhere.
Major Dundee has dropped to a mark 5lb below his Midlands National win and Brian Hughes is an eye-catching booking, but he’s not shown much since unseating 2 out in this race last year, so backing him requires a leap of faith.
Bretney is the type to bounce back after a poor run and has a grinding style that should suit this race well. Blinkered runners also have a good record in this, so it’s interesting to see them reapplied here given that the switch from cheekpieces did the trick at Perth in April. However, his stable’s current form (just 1-20 in the last two weeks) tempers enthusiasm.
So the one I’ve landed on here is YOUR OWN STORY. Lucinda Russell’s 9yo has the right profile for this, having run huge races in last year’s Scottish National and at the Punchestown Festival, both over extreme distances. He’s also 7lb better off with Bretney than when they met in the Borders National lower and should be spot on for this after three runs this season.
He shouldn’t be too far away from the pace and tends to hit peak form in the second half of the season (record from January onwards: 315232126222). That makes his 16/1 price look generous, especially as his stable is flying (6-29, 21% in the past two weeks).
Tips
🏇 Your Own Story
0.5pt EW @ 16/1 | Ladbrokes (5 Places, 1/5 Odds)
2:32 Chepstow – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
A typically competitive renewal, and there are strong cases to be made for a few. The market is usually a good guide, with six of the last ten winners coming from the first two in the betting.
Guard The Moon is a worthy favourite, given he’s unexposed at the trip and ran a big race over an inadequate distance last time. Firestream also commands respect after an impressive win at Wincanton on his first run in nearly two years, though he’ll need to brush up on his jumping.
The one who makes most appeal at the prices is GOLD IN THE RIVERS. David Pipe has a strong record in this race (3-7-12, 58% win and place) and it looks likely this has been the plan since he was bought out of Gordon Elliott’s yard in November.
He weakened quickly last time, but the first-time tongue tie and a recent wind op suggest there was a breathing issue at play. Given Pipe’s record with horses on their first run after a wind op, in particular 3m handicappers, a much better showing can be expected here.
Tips
🏇 Gold In The Rivers
1pt EW @ 12/1 | bet365 (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
3:35 Kempton – Ladbrokes Trophy
A competitive renewal where several hold chances, but I’m splitting stakes on KATATE DORI and CHARLIE UBERALLES.
The top of the market looks opposable. Hyland and Lowry’s Bar bring strong novice form but are burdened with big weights, which is historically a negative in this race (11/15 winners carried 11-0 or less). Beachcomber was impressive in first-time blinkers over course and distance last time, but he’s now 7lb higher and these are much deeper waters.
KATATE DORI is still unexposed, and the stats around horses coming from Wincanton into this race make for compelling reading. All three of Sam Thomas’ runners in this race have hit the frame, outperforming market expectations by 317%.
There’s a slight concern about the ground and trip, as his best form has come over further with more cut, but the booking of Charlie Deutsch could indicate more positive tactics. If they make more use of him, he could be a big danger in a race where bottom weights have a good record.
CHARLIE UBERALLES looks well-treated off just 4lb higher than his Doncaster win in December, a race that has worked out superbly. The runner-up went on to win the Sky Bet Chase, the third was going well in that same race before falling, and the fifth went close in the Rowland Meyrick. That’s strong form, and the fact he’s been given a 70-day break since suggests this has been the long-term plan.
His only real question mark is the track—most of his best form is left-handed—but he has won twice at Perth and is versatile, so it’s not a dealbreaker.
I also gave Unanswered Prayers a good look. He was sixth in this last year and should get his preferred good ground this time, but he’s been running over marathon trips lately and might find 3m a little sharp around here.
Tips
🏇 Katate Dori
1pt Win @ 10/1 | William Hill
🏇 Charlie Uberalles
1pt Win @ 20/1 | William Hill