Some fascinating contests in store this weekend, and I’ve gone deep on the trends, form, and video analysis to land on the best value bets.
As always, Cheat Sheets and Trends Ratings are provided for all the big races, but here’s where my money is going.
12:55 Haydock – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
A cracking renewal and, as always, this has the makings of a real slog.
The market has it about right in making Jipcot favourite. His run at Windsor last time caught the eye given how well he fared against an obvious pace bias. But I do have a bit of a stigma against backing horses with known breathing issues (only 2/15 winners of this wore a tongue tie), and at single figures, I can let him win without me.
Instead, I’m splitting stakes across CHASINGOUTTHEBLUES and NAB WOOD, both of whom tick a lot of boxes.
Chasingouttheblues is a very lightly-raced improver who’s already proven over the trip (1 run, 1 win) and seems to be ahead of the handicapper, having been ridden quite shrewdly the last twice. He’s up just 4lb for his latest effort, which could underestimate him.
Nab Wood also looks nicely treated, having shaped very well at Ayr last time. He’s unexposed at the trip, and his trainer Nicky Richards has a good record in this race (1-3-7, +6pts). I’m expecting more to come from him.
Tips
🏇 Chasingouttheblues
1pt Win @ 9/1 | General
🏇 Nab Wood
1pt Win @ 8/1 | General
14:25 Ascot – Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle
This is typically a race for unexposed improvers, and that’s exactly the angle I’m taking here.
JOUR D’EVASION is the one that stands out. His Hereford form has worked out very well—runner-up Santos Blue won at Windsor last week and is now rated 142, which makes Jour d’Evasion look very well treated off just 121. The slight niggle is that his yard is only 1-16 in the last two weeks, but at the prices, he’s worth chancing.
The other one I like is INTO THE PARK, who has strong form lines through Joyeuse. He was beaten just under three lengths by her in a Taunton maiden last year, conceding 7lb. She’s since gone on to win the Betfair Hurdle and is now rated 138, which makes Into The Park’s opening mark of 125 look very workable.
Philip Hobbs has his horses in decent form, and this one has been well-supported, having been as big as 20/1 earlier in the week. With the potential for further improvement on just his eighth start over hurdles, he’s worth chancing at a nice price.
Tips
🏇 Jour d’Evasion
1pt Win @ 12/1 | General
🏇 Into The Park
1pt Win @ 16/1 | Boylesports, Coral, Ladbrokes
14:40 Haydock – WKD Rendlesham Hurdle
A weak renewal, with plenty of question marks over the market leaders.
GWENNIE MAY BOY has been on my radar for a while now, and I was very taken by his win at Aintree last season. He still looked like there was plenty more to come, and while this is a step up in class, it’s far from the strongest of Grade 2s.
He ticks plenty of the trends boxes, and I much prefer his profile to the exposed types at the top of the betting.
Tips
🏇 Gwennie May Boy
1pt Win @ 18/1 | William Hill
15:00 Ascot – Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase
Last year’s winner THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE looks primed to go well again.
He won this comfortably 12 months ago off the same race weight, idling on the run-in. His reappearance run behind Victorrino was solid, especially considering he was giving away 12lb and race fitness. He’s 5lb better off now, and crucially, he’s likely to get an uncontested lead.
Given his profile, I’d have expected him to be shorter than the 10s and 11s available. This looks like an excellent opportunity for him to follow up.
Tips
🏇 Threeunderthrufive
1pt EW @ 10/1 | Sky Bet (4 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Final Thoughts
That’s the lot for this week.
As always, I’ll be watching the markets closely, and if anything changes before the off, I’ll send a quick update via email.
Good luck, and let’s land some winners! 🎯