12:40 Cheltenham
Alan King likes to target this meeting and has a particularly good record in this race, with his last 4 runners producing a winner and a place, performing 69% above market expectation.
The top-rated horse (on official ratings) has also outperformed market expectation in recent history. Backing each of them across the past 15 renewals would have produced 5 winners and 3 places for a level stakes profit of 15.75 points.
Not for the first time over 3m, MASACCIO looked a non-stayer last time, but he got a lot closer to The Jukebox Man over this trip at Newbury the time before and that’s just about the strongest piece of form on offer here.
Indeed, many of these look like their futures could lie over different trips, but this one looks a middle distance specialist and he’ll do for me in a race for the each-way thieves.
Tips
Masaccio
0.5pt EW @ 10/1 | Paddy Power (3 Places, 1/5 Odds)
1:50 Cheltenham
In race where many of the market leaders have questions to answer, I’m going two against the field starting with the vastly improved SOUL ICON, who was rated just 86 this time three years ago.
He appeared to be developing a bad case of seconditis but shed his maiden tag in some style from 4lb out of the handicap last time and, given he had plenty of form over middle distances prior to that, there could be more to come now returned to his longer trip.
The other one I want on side here is the ever-reliable IL RIDOTO, who doesn’t look obviously well-handicapped but was competitive from a 1lb higher mark in this race last year and is reunited with Freddie Gingell who claims a further 3lb.
This race looks certain to be run to suit, with stablemate Ginny’s Destiny one of many who like to get on with things, so I can see him getting a similar tow into the race as he did in the Paddy Power and with question marks against so many of the others I find it hard to see him finishing out of the places.
Tips
Il Ridoto
0.5pt Win @ 11/1 | Paddy Power, Sky Bet
Soul Icon
0.5pt Win @ 14/1 | Paddy Power, Sky Bet
3:15 Doncaster
ERNE RIVER has form figures of 11215U4 around here and was beaten only 7 lengths in this race last year. He has a 10lb pull in the weights with runner-up Forward Plan this time around, yet is trading at three times the price.
He was going perfectly well when unseating his rider here in December and has had a nice confidence booster over hurdles since, beaten only 4 lengths by a subsequent winner, and this looks to have been his long-term target.
The other one I like at a price here is YOUNG BUSTER, who would have made it a four-timer on this card last year if it wasn’t for the clouting the third last which evidently knocked the stuffing out of him.
He gets in here off a 2lb lower mark with Jack Hogan claiming an additional 3lbs and could prove to be well-handicapped given how few miles he has on the clock for a horse of his age.
Granted, he has a 91-day absence to overcome, but is 3-6 following a break of 84 days or more so clearly goes well fresh and there’s every chance this will have been the long-term plan given his trainer’s record at the track.
He has a few lengths to find with Famous Bridge on their Kelso form, but that race was contested over 2f further and he was only headed on the long run-in (2nd last omitted) so today’s drop back in trip looks a smart move and I can see him outrunning his odds on the front end.
Tips
Erne River
0.5pt Win @ 14/1 | General
Young Buster
0.5pt Win @ 28/1 | Betfair, Paddy Power