2:05 Haydock
Last year’s winner Famous Bridge appears to have obvious claims. He arrives only 2lbs higher than last year but is somehow available at twice the price having posted some creditable efforts since. He was in the process of running a nice race in the Grand National trial back at this venue in February before unseating his rider and also acquitted himself well behind Chianti Classico in the Ultima, eventually finishing 4th.
His return at Kelso last time behind course specialist Elvis Mail was a decent effort on his comeback, but the timing of that run means two things. First, that he arrives here having had one less prep run than he did last year. And second, he also lines up on the back of an 8-week break, which could prove crucial given that 14 of the last 15 winners had all raced within the past 5 weeks. I’ll be taking him on at the prices.
Frenchy Du Large has only won 3 times in 21 appearances, but he’s finished 2nd no fewer than eight times and clearly has his quirks, so it’s no surprise to see the cheekpieces are back on here. He had the race at his mercy at Market Rasen in May before tying up on the run-in and it was a similar story at Ludlow last time, throwing away his chance by hanging right from 2 out. He ran well over course and distance here last April, but has only made it to the track twice since and hardly rates a solid betting proposition for all that his trainer is in flying form.
That leads me to REGAL BLUE, whose profile is as in-and-out as they come but gets his ideal conditions here. He needs the ground soft and it’s no secret that front runners can take some pegging back around here, while his defeat of The Changing Man off level weights in March looks solid form. His RPR of 140 that day suggest he could be well-handicapped off 132 and his two previous visits to Haydock have produced a win and a second. It’s also worth noting that every time he’s pulled-up has been followed by a career-best next time and connections apparently see him as a Welsh National horse, in which case he should prove more than capable of landing what looks to be a fairly weak renewal of this race.
Finally, I have to give a mention to Diol Ker. He might be pushing 11 now, but if anyone can give the old boy a new lease of life it’s surely Evan Williams and it’s interesting to see that the cheekpieces are back on. He’s shown nothing in three starts for the yard to date, but has dropped a further 9lbs in the weights as a result and sneaks in here off 120. That’s a full 17lbs below his last winning mark and a whopping 25lbs lower than when he was beaten just a nose in Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase off 145 two years ago. More importantly, 3 of his 4 wins have come on heavy ground, so with “heavy in places” already in the going description and further rain forecast this stamina-sapping test is likely to suit.
Tips
Regal Blue
1pt Win @ 9/1 | bet365, William Hill
3:00 Ascot
The obvious place to start is with last year’s winner Victorrino, who is rated 1lb higher than last year but is set to carry 12lbs less in actual weight due to the presence of Threeunderthrufive at the top of the handicap. He’s also 6lbs better off with that rival for a four-and-three-quarter length defeat here in February, and the form of his Hennessy third is arguably the best on offer. However, that wasn’t the first time his jumping has let him down and I’d be wary of taking a short price about him.
Trelawne confirmed the promise he’d shown as a novice chaser in a graduation chase at Haydock last time, showcasing his appetite for a battle to defeat the previously Grade 1-placed Iroko. He was strong at the finish there and spent most of last season running over an inadequate trip, so what excites me about him is the return to 3m, given his obvious potential as a staying chaser.
He was extremely well-backed for last year’s Ultima on his first try at the trip, but got no further than the second before stablemate Chianti Classico ultimately ran out a decisive winner. While it’s impossible to know what might have happened had Trelawne stayed on his feet there, Kim Bailey said prior to the race that he felt it was impossible to split the pair, which ought to speak volumes given what that horse achieved under top weight here last month.
However, Bailey has also made no secret of the fact his fragile charge needs soft ground to be seen to best effect, and it’s worth mentioning that all 4 of his wins post-debut have come following a break of 113 days or more. That surely has to be a concern with him returning to the track just 4 weeks after that gruelling race at Haydock. So, with all that said, I’ll be looking to oppose the front two in the market.
Stablemate Two For Gold turns 12 next week, but always saves his best for Ascot (where his form figures read 6221224) and his fourth behind Chianti Classico off level weights here last month was a solid effort on his first run back following a wind-op. He’s 9lbs better off with Victorrino for a six-length defeat here last year, yet is available at more than five times the price of that rival. The stats suggest he’s too old and too high in the weights to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he runs into a place again.
Flegmatik is another who has run some solid races in defeat here in the past, including when third to Victorrino in this race last year. He was competitive off marks of around 140 following that effort, defeating Chianti Classico next time out before posting a solid fourth in the Coral Trophy, albeit both of those efforts came at his beloved Kempton.
He arrives here on a 3lb lower mark than last year (and 4lbs better off with the winner) owing to some clever hoodwinking of the handicapper since. The booking of stable jockey Harry Skelton and refitting of the cheekpieces both catch the eye, but the fact this race cut up in midweek is a negative for him as he’s a horse who seems to need every yard of 3m these days and would have appreciated a strongly-run race.
Rank outsider HARTUR D’ARC had subsequent Sandown bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner 15 lengths behind when landing the Leinster National in March. Granted, he was running off a mark of just 128 that day, but that was only his fourth start over fences and first at 3m+ under rules. He blatantly didn’t stay in the Irish National next time, but remains unexposed at this sort of trip and might have flown under the radar a little with Gavin Cromwell just starting to hit form. He reminds me a little of last year’s runner-up Yeah Man and jockey Conor Stone-Walsh is 2-2 for the yard in the past 14 days.
Tips
Hartur d’Arc
0.5pt EW @ 14/1 | General (3 Places, 1/5 Odds)
3:35 Ascot
FAVOUR AND FORTUNE has top weight and absence to overcome here, but is 2-2 following a break of 80 days or more and brings just about the best form on offer to the table. He finished second to Jango Baie in a Grade 1 last term and was beaten only 10 lengths in the Supreme before accounting for L’Eau du Sud, Rubaud and others in a Grade 2 Limited Handicap at Ayr. He’s entitled to have improved over the summer and may well appreciate the return to better conditions, having spent most of last season running on soft and heavy.
Alan King also has a decent record in this race. His last 15 runners have produced 2 winners and 2 places for a LSP of +7pts. It’s also worth noting that 10 of the last 16 winners had previously run in a Grade 1. Backing all 110 qualifiers would have produced a LSP of +17.25pts. Finally, horses who have won a Graded or Listed race are 10 from 92, for a LSP of +10.75pts. Favour And Fortune is the only horse in the field to qualify on all three accounts.
A line through Beat The Bat suggests Steel Ally should have the measure of star mare Dysart Enos at these weights and his 1 length 2nd to Lump Sum—conceding 5lbs—rates solid form given how well that stablemate ran in the Fighting Fifth. Coincidentally, Lump Sum was also a comfortable winner of last year’s Dovecote, beating FIERCELY PROUD by 5 lengths off level weights. However, Steel Ally must concede 12lbs to his rival here, which leaves him with about 3 lengths to find if you take that form line literally.
Indeed, Ben Pauling’s charge is also 11lbs better off than when the two faced off at Sandown in April, which suggests he should prove capable of reversing the form. He was disputing second when coming to grief 2 out here in November, on a day when he ran far too free in the early stages. That was hardly an ideal prep for the Greatwood so he didn’t fare too badly at Cheltenham in the circumstances, having once again been asked to make up more ground than ideal. He has around 8 lengths to find with Dysart Enos on that form, but a 5lb pull in the weights and more prominent tactics can help him bridge the gap.
Secret Squirrel also ran in that Sandown race back in April, finishing 6 lengths behind Steel Ally, but is another who finds himself 9lbs better off with that rival here, which puts him firmly in the mix. He’s 1lb worse off with Fiercely Proud than when they met here in November in a race won by Our Champ. It’s hard to predict what might have happened there had Fiercely Proud stayed upright, but it looked as though there wasn’t going to be much between them.
Secret Squirrel’s jumping let him down at a couple of key moments that day, but he did well to make up ground from the rear in a slowly-run race and Hughie Morrison has won back-to-back renewals of this in 2019 and 2020 with Not So Sleepy. However, given how little there is between them, I’d much rather be with the Pauling horse at the prices.
Tips
Favour And Fortune
1pt Win @ 11/1 | bet365, William Hill
Fiercely Proud
1pt Win @ 11/1 | bet365
1:15 Ascot
This is a tricky little contest on paper. No fewer than 4 of the 7 runners have faced off against each other in the past and they’re all very closely matched on ratings. The bookies find them hard to split too, with 3 of the 4 trading at 3/1 or shorter.
Venetia Williams is the most successful trainer in this race’s history, saddling 3 winners (all of whom were French imports) and 2 more placed horses from just 12 runners. Galop De Chasse is more exposed than typical winners of this race, but his defeat of the now 151-rated Kandoo Kid last November suggests there could be quite a bit of wiggle room in his mark of 133. Indeed, Venetia has already plundered two big handicap chases here this season courtesy of Martator.
Kotmask proved no match for Martator on either of those occasions, but would have gone close to winning both races were it not for bumping into the well-handicapped winner and has looked steadily progressive in his own right this season. He was nearly caught for second last time, but was unsuited by the emphasis on speed at the finish, having looked like a step back up in trip would suit in a much more strongly-run contest here earlier that month.
He and Scarface have faced off three times in the past, with the grey currently leading the head-to-head 2-1. However, he was in receipt of weight from Gary Moore’s charge on both of those occasions and meets him on level terms here. Already a Grade 3 winner over fences, he has plenty of back class to his name and I like the way he acquitted himself behind In Excelsis Deo and the 157-rated Hang In There at Cheltenham back in April. He’s weighted to confirm the Newbury form with Galop De Chasse, but if anything he looked as though he might want to go up in trip that day rather than down and that makes today’s 2m3f trip a negative for me.
Course winner Black Gerry has an absence to overcome, but he’s gone well fresh in the past and the application of first-time cheekpieces catches the eye. He split Scarface and Kotmask in a valuable handicap on his penultimate start last season and, while he isn’t quite weighted to reverse that form with the winner, he’s three times the price and is now 9lbs below his last winning mark.
Interestingly, there doesn’t appear to be much pace on here, so there’s every chance Solo could get an easy lead. Harry Cobden is a dangerous weapon when allowed to dictate matters from the front, so with stamina assured I can definitely see him wanting to get on with things. His mount has found himself in “no man’s land” a bit since his novice days—too high in the weights for handicaps, but not at the level required to be competitive in open Grade 1s.
He’s not exactly tumbled down the weights since, either—a mark of 145 means he’s set to carry 12 stone here—but it wasn’t all that long ago he was beating the Datsalrightgino and Boothill in a Grade 2. He’s also gone close on both his previous visits to Ascot and Paul Nicholls’ horses have been improving heaps and bound for their first run this year, so there’s plenty to like about his chances despite the fact he has a bit to prove.
PRINCE QUALI caught the eye with a staying-on third on seasonal debut, but in truth he’s been on my radar ever since his victory at Chepstow in April. He had Sans Bruit, Dr T J Eckleburg and Calico in behind that day—all of whom have won since—so the form looks solid and I have no doubt he’s very well-handicapped off a mark of 128.
While it’s true only 1 of the last 15 winners came from that Newbury race he ran in last time, a further 5 have hit the frame and the step up in trip looks a definite positive. The only slight question mark with him is the ground, since most of his best form has come on a soft or heavy surface, though I’d imagine good-to-soft will be fine assuming that’s the way it stays.
That said, he’s almost halved in price over the past 24 hours and the fact there are only 7 runners here means he’s not an each-way proposition, so I’m happy to sit this one out.
2:25 Ascot
Newbury’s Long Distance Hurdle has been the best recent guide and this year’s winner Strong Leader has barely put a foot wrong since being upped to 3 miles. He was an impressive winner of a strong Liverpool Hurdle on his final start last season and his trainer has made no secret of the fact he’s better on flat tracks, so a repeat bid will surely be on the cards come April. He ran well over an inadequate trip in the Ascot Hurdle here last year, but if you’re looking for one possible chink in his armour, he did jump out to his right at times that day and I feel there could be a bit of value lurking elsewhere.
Last year’s winner Crambo is 2-2 here and 3-4 when returning from a break of 70 days or more. He went off the boil after that win—running no sort of race at either Cheltenham or Aintree—but it’s worth noting that he did the same thing the previous season. That leaves me with the impression he might be a horse who doesn’t stand a lot of racing, so it’s interesting that connections have decided to start him off here this season. Indeed, he’d already had two prep runs by the time he arrived here last season. Plus, let’s face it, repeat winners of this race are not exactly uncommon. Since the redevelopment of Ascot was completed in 2006, Big Bucks, Reve De Sivola and Paisley Park have all won it three times, so at 9/1 he looks a bit overpriced to me.
Winning this would surely thrust The Wallpark firmly into the World Hurdle picture, but I can’t recall the last time that a genuine Grade 1 horse was running at Listowel and Kilbeggan in the summer. So, of the four-strong Irish contingent, the one who interests me most is Shoot First, who hasn’t stood much racing himself but made up for lost time in style at Haydock last month despite drifting in the market. Given he’d raced almost exclusively on a sound surface prior to that, I suspect the bad ground was a worry and it would be no surprise to see him take another step forward with conditions seemingly more to his liking.
Let’s not forget Charles Byrnes knows a thing or two about training staying hurdlers (remember Solwhit, anyone?), so it’s interesting he’s chosen to pitch this one in at the deep end here. Off a mark of 145, connections surely had the option of running in another handicap and sticking a 5lb claimer onboard again. However, they’ve chosen to run here instead and that surely speaks volumes about what they think of him at home.
Personally, this is another no-bet race for me, but I wouldn’t put anyone off Crambo or Shoot First as each-way alternatives against the favourite.