Bailey to go close again in the Ultima
The Ultima (2.50) is clearly a race Kim Bailey likes to target, having saddled the runner-up in 2021 and a 4th in 2020 and CHIANTI CLASSICO looks to have an outstanding chance of giving him a first win in the race.
As highlighted in Paul Ferguson’s excellent Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, novices have a great recent record in this race and he looked a natural over fences when giving the now 137-rated Inch House 12lbs and a 14-length beating on chasing debut, looking right at home under the testing conditions.
He then followed-up in a tactical 3-runner affair at Ascot, again conceding bags of weight, before pushing course specialist Flegmatik all the way at Kempton last time despite looking uncomfortable on the track. Not only has the winner franked that form in the Coral Trophy since, but Kim Bailey’s yard was under a bit of a cloud at the time.
Crucially, he’s been raised just a pound for that effort — so falls in the ideal rating band of 139-151 — and rates a solid each-way play in a race that has been a rare happy hunting ground for the British in recent years.
Tips
Chianti Classico
1pt EW @ 13/2 | Bet365 (6 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Taking on the Mullins hotpot in the Mares’
Lossiemouth (4.10) is a banker for many punters, but she makes no appeal to me as a betting proposition at 4/6.
She was thoroughly impressive in the International last time but that came over 3f shorter and, having raced exclusively over 2m1f or shorter, she has looked all speed so far. Alarmingly, she’s also shown a tendency to pull quite hard in her races, something which surely rates a negative in the conditions, especially given that all of the last 10 first-time winners of the race had already scored over the 2m4f trip.
Stablemate GALA MARCEAU is arguably the forgotten horse of the race given that she is the only horse to have beaten Lossiemouth so far, albeit she was quite lucky to do so in last year’s Spring Juvenile with her more-fancied rival having met all sorts of trouble in-running. That form was later reversed in the Triumph, but she still proved much the “best of the rest” and was closing on the winner up the hill. In fact, if you’d have asked me at that point which of the front two was more likely to prove effective over further in time, my answer would emphatically have been the runner-up, yet the pair are at completely opposite ends of the betting here.
She also had Champion Hurdle contender Zarak The Brave 12 lengths back in third when upped in trip for the French Triumph, a win which took her form figures on soft/heavy to 11221, so conditions won’t be a problem for her and Mullins has stated that she was badly in need of the run on both starts this season. The prices here just look wrong to me and I think she represents great each-way value in a race that looks more open than the market suggests.
Tips
Gala Marceau
0.5pt EW @ 22/1 | General (3 Places, 1/5 Odds)
Elliott dominance to continue in the Boodles
Gordon Elliott has a solid recent record in this race, his last 28 runners producing 4 winners for a level stakes profit of 59.5pts, but it’s his place strike-rate which catches the eye most — with 32% of his runners hitting the frame (often at big prices).
MORDOR was 0-5 on the flat for David Simcock and is also yet to break his maiden over obstacles, so might not look like a typical Elliot “plot” at first glance, but he had several of his more-fancied rivals behind on his hurdles debut and looks to have had his mark preserved for this since.
Indeed, he’s weighted to confirm the form with Lark In The Mornin and Ndaawi from that race, both of whom are trading at single-figure prices, so with useful claimer Danny Gilligan claiming 3lbs looks massively overpriced at 40s with Bet365 paying 6 places.
Tips
Mordor
0.5pt EW @ 40/1 | bet365 (6 Places, 1/5 Odds)